The Forecast Fallacy That’s Killing Your Credibility
If your forecast is built on “vibes,” you’re not forecasting… you’re fantasizing.
We see it every quarter. Reps loading their forecast with deals that sounded good on the call… but haven’t moved in two weeks.
Deals with no clear next step. No confirmed budget. No decision-maker on the thread.
But hey! “They seemed really into it.”
This is where forecasts go to die.
Here’s why this matters:
When you forecast with hope instead of evidence, two things happen:
→ You lose credibility with your manager.
→ You lose control of your pipeline.
Top sellers do it differently.
They don’t wait for EOQ to find out the truth, they test it early.
Here’s how to forecast like a pro, not a dreamer:
Check your deal signals, not your feelings. Hope is not a signal. Silence is. Inaction is. A buyer who won’t commit to next steps is showing you something, believe them.
Ask commitment questions that get real answers
→ “Who else will be in the final decision?”
→ “What happens if this doesn’t get solved this quarter?”
→ “What would stop you from moving forward next week?”
These don’t kill deals but clarify them.
Kill your darlings early. Forecasting a maybe-deal as “Commit” doesn’t make it real. It just makes your forecast a lie. Great reps prune early so they can double down on what’s real.
Use your forecast to drive strategy, not comfort. Your forecast should help you plan your work, guide your outreach, and manage internal resources. If it’s not accurate, it’s not useful.
Treat your pipeline like an asset, not a hope chest. Your pipeline is your business. Not a place for wishful thinking, but a place to apply judgment, rigor, and truth.
A challenge for this week:
Open your forecast. Kill the maybes. Get honest with yourself before the quarter makes you.
Because hope feels good, but it won’t hit your number.
About Brian Sullivan
Brian Sullivan, CSP, is the author of 20 Days to the Top and a leading voice in sales training and development. He helps sales teams perfect their prospecting and performance with PRECISE Selling.
